Военная история / War and Chance: Assessing Uncertainty in International Politics

Название: War and Chance: Assessing Uncertainty in International Politics
Автор(ы): Jeffrey A. Friedman
Издательство: Oxford University Press
Год: 2019
ISBN: 0190938021
Страниц: 241
Язык: English
Формат: True PDF
Размер: 10 MB

Uncertainty surrounds every major decision in international politics. Yet there is almost always room for reasonable people to disagree about what that uncertainty entails. No one can reliably predict the outbreak of armed conflict, forecast economic recessions, anticipate terrorist attacks, or estimate the countless other risks that shape foreign policy choices. Many scholars and practitioners therefore believe that it is better to keep foreign policy debates focused on the facts - that it is, at best, a waste of time to debate uncertain judgments that will often prove to be wrong.